January 2026: New Home Sales Started The Year At The Lowest Level Since October 2022
- There were 587,000 (SAAR) new single-family home sales nationwide in January. That’s 17.6% below the revised December rate of 712,000. Sales of newly built homes were 11.3% below the January 2025 estimate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
- The median price of new houses sold was $400,500, down 6.8% from a year ago.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 476,000, a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate. This is higher than the 8 months in December and higher than the 9 months in January 2025.
What happened: New home sales fell in January. Sales are now 11.3% lower than a year ago and fell in every region. January’s pace was the lowest since October 2022.
What Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy says: Although housing affordability continued to improve, new home sales fell again in January.
The decline could be short-lived. The Zillow housing market report for February showed an improvement in housing market activity after January’s deep winter freeze. Lower mortgage rates have increased buying power by about $30,000 for a median-income household over the past year, while the typical mortgage payment is down 7.7% from a year ago (excluding taxes and insurance).
Affordability is a tailwind, but broader economic risks remain a constraint on activity. Inflation is still above target, and ongoing geopolitical risks could keep Treasury yields and mortgage rates elevated.
Following a brief dip below 6% in February, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose in March. At the same time, slower population growth and a weaker labor market could constrain household formation and residential moves, limiting the extent to which improved affordability translates into increased home sales.
Builders will also be facing increased competition from rising resale inventory. With fewer new construction homes in the pipeline, new home sales could stabilize at a lower level than in recent years.
The post January 2026: New Home Sales Started The Year At The Lowest Level Since October 2022 appeared first on Zillow Research.
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